FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toronto FC at 32%, draw at 38%, Inter Miami CF at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-4. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
32%
Draw
38%
CF win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.00 – 0.95
Total 1.95
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+4.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Draw
Pre-match: 40%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost