> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC
Zulte-Waregem vs Dender
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
47.4% home26.0% draw26.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Zulte-WaregemstepDender
1.88Base xG · rolling 26-match1.56
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.03Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.50
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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3
4
5
6
0
3
4
3
2
1
1
6
9
7
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
5
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Zulte-Waregem 2–1 Dender
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+