FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Zulte-Waregem 2–1 DenderMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Zulte-Waregem at 47%, draw at 26%, Dender at 27%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Zulte-Waregem.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zulte-Waregem win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Dender win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.03 – 1.50
Total 3.54
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.28x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓