> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Mainz
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Heidenheim's desperation-fueled pressure creates chaos Mainz exploits; back BTTS No at 41% value despite even xG.
Win probability
37.1% home29.1% draw33.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
1. FC Heidenheim 1846stepMainz
1.48Base xG · rolling 26-match1.58
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.52
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
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11
8
4
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6
9
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5
3
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1
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1
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + X2 + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 31.8% · @ 3.14x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0–2 Mainz
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+