Bawler / 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Mainz / Recap
FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0–2 MainzMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026

1. FC Heidenheim 1846
0–2
Mainz win
Mainz
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 at 37%, draw at 29%, Mainz at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
1846 win
37%
Draw
29%
Mainz win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.52
Total 3.12
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 41%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.14x
  • Over 22.5 Shots✓
  • Over 1.5 Goals✓
  • X2✓
  • Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Heidenheim's desperation-fueled pressure creates chaos Mainz exploits; back BTTS No at 41% value despite even xG."

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