FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 26 April 2026
AC Milan 0–0 JuventusMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 44%, draw at 26%, Juventus at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was AC Milan to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
44%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Juventus win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.10
Total 2.52
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
AC Milan or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won