Bawler / Italy: Serie A / AC Milan
Team profile

AC Milan Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.2
a game
11.5 faced
On target
4.4
a game
3.7 faced
Goals
1.4 – 0.9
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
47%
AC Milan win chance
at Torino · Sun 23 Aug 18:45

AC Milan prediction: for AC Milan's next match — Torino vs AC Milan on Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a AC Milan win looks most likely (47%).

AC Milan carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.51 expected goals per game against a Serie A average of 1.24. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Torino, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 47%.

AC Milan in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 0.9
Home 1.3Away 1.5
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 5.0Away 3.6
13.2
Shots · per game
faced 11.5
Home 16.1Away 10.4
4.4
On target · per game
faced 3.7
Home 4.9Away 3.8
Last 6 games
24 May
1-2
vs Cagliari
5-5
17 May
2-1
@ Genoa
4-4
10 May
2-3
vs Atalanta
2-2
03 May
0-2
@ Sassuolo
3-2
26 Apr
0-0
vs Juventus
1-3
19 Apr
1-0
@ Verona
1-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Torino · Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
47%
AC Milan
Draw
28%
Loss
25%
Torino
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How AC Milan compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.51
Above average
Goals against
1.18
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.3 – 1.5
For / against, per match
Scored1.51
Conceded1.18

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.51 xG per match · +0.27 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.

How Bawler has done on AC Milan

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 6
Result67%2/3
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 Mayvs Cagliari
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 May@ Genoa
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 Mayvs Atalanta
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Aprvs Juventus
High confidence: AC Milan or Draw (Double Chance)
Mon 06 Apr@ Napoli
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs Torino
High confidence: 1X

More on AC Milan and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly