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Bawler / Italy: Serie A / AC Milan

AC Milan

Italy: Serie A

AC Milan's attacking profile sits marginally above league average at 1.49 xG per match, but their underlying issue is defensive fragility—1.22 xG conceded suggests structural vulnerabilities in transition. Recent form has been volatile (2W-1D-2L across five fixtures), reflecting this inconsistency between moments of control and costly lapses. With no settled fixtures immediately ahead, the model will recalibrate as the next match emerges. Bawler's 80% banker hit rate on Milan suggests strong predictive edge on their games when opportunities arise.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.51+0.30 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.180.18 vs league
◇ = Italy: Serie A average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals AC Milan were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Italy: Serie A average — if the bar extends past the diamond, AC Milan are above average there.

> xG performance · last 6 matches
0123vs Torino: actual 3, xG 1.72@ Napoli: actual 0, xG 1.20vs Juventus: actual 0, xG 1.42vs Atalanta: actual 2, xG 1.78@ Genoa: actual 2, xG 1.32vs Cagliari: actual 1, xG 1.61Torino@NapoliJuventAtalan@GenoaCaglia
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate -1.0 goals vs xG (-0.17/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals AC Milan actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.51 xG per match · +0.30 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.21.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.18 xG per match · -0.18 vs league average of 1.35.
> Form · last 5
Overall: 2W / 1D / 3L · Avg goals 1.3 for, 1.5 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from AC Milan's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
6
6 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.51
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.18
per match
Banker Hit Rate
67%
4/6 picks
> Bawler's Banker picks on AC Milan matches
67%
hit rate over 6 picks

When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a AC Milan fixture, the model lands 4 out of 6 (67%). Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

> Bawler's record on AC Milan by market
Result67%2/3
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on AC Milan fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for AC Milan matches.

> Recent matches (last 6)

> More from Bawler