> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Thursday 21 May, 16:45 UTC
Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Ajax's xG advantage (1.75 vs 1.35) combined with 82% Over 1.5 Goals confidence makes the total the play despite modest 44% home win odds.
Win probability
44.0% home28.7% draw27.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Ajax AmsterdamstepFC Groningen
1.62Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.75Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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11
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + 1X + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 17.7% · @ 5.66x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ajax Amsterdam 2–0 FC Groningen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+