Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Groningen
Team profile

Groningen Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.7
a game
11.7 faced
On target
6.1
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
21%
Groningen win chance
at PSV · Sun 23 Aug 12:30

Groningen prediction: for Groningen's next match — PSV vs Groningen on Sunday 23 Aug, 12:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it PSV are favoured (54%).

Groningen sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.64 expected goals a game and conceding 1.61. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.17 a game against 1.64 expected. Recent form is good, with 4 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to PSV Eindhoven, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Groningen in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.6Away 1.5
5.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
Home 6.8Away 5.0
15.7
Shots · per game
faced 11.7
Home 16.6Away 14.8
6.1
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 5.4Away 6.7
Last 6 games
16 Aug
4-1
@ Den Haag
2-5
16 Aug
4-1
@ ADO Den Haag
2-5
09 Aug
2-1
vs Utrecht
5-1
21 May
0-2
@ Ajax
0-4
17 May
2-1
@ Heracles
5-9
10 May
2-1
vs Nijmegen
5-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs PSV · Sunday 23 Aug, 12:30 UTC

Win
21%
Groningen
Draw
25%
Loss
54%
PSV
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Groningen compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.64
Above average
Goals against
1.61
Leakier than most
Record
5W 0D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
2.2 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.64
Conceded1.61

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Groningen fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Groningen

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%5/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 16 Aug@ ADO Den Haag
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Augvs FC Utrecht
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 21 May@ Ajax Amsterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Heracles Almelo
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 Mayvs NEC Nijmegen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs AZ Alkmaar
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INJacob OndrejkaLWfrom ParmaLoan
INMalcolm JengCBfrom ReimsLoan
INAlvin NordinRMfrom Helsingborg€1m
INMárk CsingerCBfrom Györi ETOUndisclosed
INTravis HernesLMfrom Newcastle UnitedUndisclosed
INRijk JanseGKfrom NEC NijmegenFree transfer
INPelle ClementDMfrom Sparta RotterdamFree transfer
INNikolas BrandisLBfrom TrencinUndisclosed
OUTRomano PostemaSTto Viking€800k
OUTThijs OostingAMto PEC ZwolleUndisclosed
OUTNils EggensSTto De GraafschapLoan
OUTMarvin PeersmanLBto TelstarFree transfer
OUTRui MendesRWto TelstarFree transfer
OUTMats SeuntjensRMto Free agentFree transfer
OUTHidde JurjusGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTDirk Baronto FC EmmenFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Groningen and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly