Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Ajax
Team profile

Ajax Prediction

Per-game numbers from 47 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.6
a game
12.9 faced
On target
5.6
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.7 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 47 matches
Corners
5.3
a game
4.8 against

Ajax prediction: Bawler's model rates Ajax at 1.62 expected goals scored and 1.63 conceded per match across 9 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 89% of the time. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. No Ajax fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Ajax sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.62 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Across 9 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Ajax have been correct 89% of the time.

Ajax in numbers

47 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.6Away 1.8
5.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
Home 5.6Away 4.9
14.6
Shots · per game
faced 12.9
Home 15.2Away 14.0
5.6
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 6.0Away 5.1
Last 6 games
13 Aug
2-2
@ Shelbourne
11-4
09 Aug
2-0
@ Zwolle
10-2
06 Aug
3-1
vs Shelbourne
14-0
24 May
1-1
vs Utrecht
-
21 May
2-0
vs Groningen
4-0
17 May
0-0
@ Heerenveen
6-10

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Ajax compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Below average
Goals against
1.63
Leakier than most
Record
3W 5D 1L
9 settled
Real goals
1.6 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.62
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Ajax fixtures (6/7).

How Bawler has done on Ajax

89%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 9, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 9)

Transfer activity

INMarcos LeonardoSTfrom Al Hilal€20m
INTolu ArokodareSTfrom Wolverhampton WanderersLoan
INCaio HenriqueLBfrom Monaco€11m
INJulian BrandtAMfrom Borussia DortmundFree transfer
INMarc-André ter StegenGKfrom BarcelonaLoan
INDaley BlindCBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INFouad ZahouaniLBfrom Union Touarga Sport€500k
INJano Monserratefrom Atletico MadridFree transfer
OUTMika GodtsLWto Paris Saint-Germain€45m
OUTSean SteurCMto Newcastle United€23m
OUTOleksandr ZinchenkoLBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTTakehiro TomiyasuCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTChuba AkpomAMto Ipswich TownUndisclosed
OUTKian Fitz-JimDMto Torino€2.5m
OUTSivert Heggheim MannsverkCMto Sparta Prague€2.5m
OUTWout WeghorstSTto FC TwenteFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Ajax and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly