Ajax
Ajax sit near equilibrium in the Eredivisie's xG economy, posting modest attacking output (1.61 xG) against a leaky defensive profile (1.70 conceded), which limits upside in both directions. Recent form reflects this stasis: one win across five settled matches alongside three draws, suggesting a team struggling to impose control. With no immediate fixtures on the horizon, the model's next Ajax angle will depend heavily on matchup context—home advantage and opponent profile typically shift their Poisson distribution materially. Bawler's banker selections on Ajax have landed at 80% across our sample, indicating strong predictive grip on their likely-to-repeat tactical shape.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Ajax were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Netherlands: Eredivisie average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Ajax are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Ajax actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Ajax's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Ajax fixture, the model lands 5 out of 6 (83%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.