FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 1–2 FC UtrechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 43%, draw at 27%, FC Utrecht at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Ajax Amsterdam to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Amsterdam win
43%
Draw
27%
Utrecht win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 1.55
Total 3.46
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.85x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗