> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 10 May, 14:45 UTC
Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.4% home26.9% draw29.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Ajax AmsterdamstepFC Utrecht
1.76Base xG · rolling 26-match1.62
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.90Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + 1X
Model 35.1% · @ 2.85x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ajax Amsterdam 1–2 FC Utrecht
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+