> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 24 May, 10:15 UTC
Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Ajax's 0.35 xG edge insufficient to justify -110 moneyline odds; BTTS No at 51% exploits undervalued under-2.5 scenario.
Win probability
42.5% home29.8% draw27.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Ajax AmsterdamstepFC Utrecht
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
4
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ajax Amsterdam 1–1 FC Utrecht
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+