Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Utrecht
Team profile

Utrecht Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.2
a game
13.4 faced
On target
5.1
a game
5.1 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
23%
Utrecht win chance
at Sparta Rotterdam · Sat 22 Aug 16:45

Utrecht prediction: for Utrecht's next match — Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht on Saturday 22 Aug, 16:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Sparta Rotterdam are favoured (48%).

Utrecht sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.52 expected goals a game and conceding 1.57. Next up is a trip to Sparta Rotterdam, where the model has them as underdogs at 23%.

Utrecht in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.6Away 1.3
4.9
Corners · per game
give up 4.7
Home 5.0Away 4.8
14.2
Shots · per game
faced 13.4
Home 16.1Away 12.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 5.1
Home 5.4Away 4.8
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-4
vs AZ Alkmaar
3-9
09 Aug
1-2
@ Groningen
1-5
24 May
1-1
@ Ajax
-
21 May
3-2
vs Heerenveen
9-6
17 May
2-0
vs Sittard
2-5
10 May
2-1
@ Ajax
7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Sparta Rotterdam · Saturday 22 Aug, 16:45 UTC

Win
23%
Utrecht
Draw
29%
Loss
48%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Utrecht compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Below average
Goals against
1.57
Leakier than most
Record
3W 1D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
1.7 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.52
Conceded1.57

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Utrecht fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Utrecht

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 15 Augvs AZ Alkmaar
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Aug@ FC Groningen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Ajax Amsterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 21 Mayvs Heerenveen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Fortuna Sittard
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Ajax Amsterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INÁngel AlarconRWfrom FC Porto€2m
INKevin ParedesLWfrom WolfsburgFree transfer
INArthur ZagréLBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INJoris van OvereemDMfrom SC Heerenveen€700k
INGuus OfferhausCBfrom TelstarFree transfer
INJamie Schuldesfrom RB LeipzigFree transfer
INFerdinand PohlCBfrom Bayer LeverkusenFree transfer
OUTSouffian El KarouaniLBto Al QadasiyaFree transfer
OUTMiguel RodríguezRWto Deportivo Alaves€5m
OUTTom de GraaffGKto PEC ZwolleUndisclosed
OUTCan BozdoganDMto Free agentFree transfer
OUTSébastien HallerSTto Sanfrecce HiroshimaFree transfer
OUTSébastien HallerSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTEmirhan DemircanLWto TelstarLoan
OUTRafik El ArguiouiCMto CambuurLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Utrecht and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly