> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Wednesday 13 May, 19:30 UTC
Alavés vs Barcelona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Barcelona's significant xG advantage (2.19 vs 1.58) and 49% win probability justify backing the away victory despite Alavés' home status.
Win probability
26.1% home24.7% draw49.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AlavésstepBarcelona
1.47Base xG · rolling 26-match2.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.19
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Alavés 1–0 Barcelona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+