Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Alaves
Team profile

Alaves Prediction

Per-game numbers from 39 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.3
a game
12.3 faced
On target
4.1
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 39 matches
Next match
23%
Alaves win chance
at Rayo Vallecano · Thu 20 Aug 19:00

Alaves prediction: for Alaves's next match — Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves on Thursday 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Rayo Vallecano are favoured (47%).

Alaves sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.33 expected goals a game and conceding 1.47. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.86 a game against 1.33 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Rayo Vallecano, where the model has them as underdogs at 23%.

Alaves in numbers

39 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.4Away 1.0
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 6.1Away 4.0
12.3
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
Home 13.2Away 11.4
4.1
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 4.7Away 3.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
3-0
vs Getafe
5-3
23 May
1-2
vs Rayo Vallecano
10-5
17 May
1-0
@ Real Oviedo
2-5
13 May
1-0
vs Barcelona
6-4
09 May
1-1
@ Elche
3-7
02 May
2-4
vs Athletic Bilbao
4-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Rayo Vallecano · Thursday 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
23%
Alaves
Draw
30%
Loss
47%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Alaves compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.33
Below average
Goals against
1.47
Leakier than most
Record
4W 2D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
1.9 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.33
Conceded1.47

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Alaves fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Alaves

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 15 Augvs Getafe
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 Mayvs Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Real Oviedo
High confidence: X2
Wed 13 Mayvs Barcelona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 May@ Elche
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs Osasuna
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Mar@ Celta Vigo
High confidence: 1X

More on Alaves and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly