FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Alavés 1–2 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alavés at 37%, draw at 33%, Rayo Vallecano at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Alavés to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
37%
Draw
33%
Vallecano win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.22
Total 2.58
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.14x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 74% probability despite modest xG totals, suggesting model sees structural vulnerability in both defenses outweighing low-shot creation."