Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano operate as a well-balanced Conference League outfit, with attacking output (1.45 xG) matching defensive solidity (1.42 xGA) almost precisely—a setup that typically rewards disciplined, low-variance play. Recent form shows mixed results across nine fixtures (4W–2D–3L), though the last five matches have stabilised around draws and wins. With no upcoming fixtures currently scheduled, our Poisson model remains primed for their next outing. Bawler's banker picks on Rayo have converted at 44% historically, suggesting value emerges in carefully selected spots rather than blanket backing.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Rayo Vallecano were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Spain: La Liga average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Rayo Vallecano are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Rayo Vallecano actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Rayo Vallecano fixture, the model lands 5 out of 10 (50%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Rayo Vallecano fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Rayo Vallecano matches.