Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Rayo Vallecano
Team profile

Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.4
a game
11.7 faced
On target
5.0
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
47%
Rayo Vallecano win chance
vs Alaves · Thu 20 Aug 19:00

Rayo Vallecano prediction: for Rayo Vallecano's next match — Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves on Thursday 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Rayo Vallecano win looks most likely (47%).

Rayo Vallecano sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.42 expected goals a game and conceding 1.42. Next up is Alavés, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 47%.

Rayo Vallecano in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.4Away 1.0
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 6.7Away 4.5
14.4
Shots · per game
faced 11.7
Home 17.2Away 11.8
5.0
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 6.0Away 4.0
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
@ Sevilla
2-1
27 May
0-1
@ Crystal Palace
1-4
23 May
2-1
@ Alaves
5-10
17 May
2-0
vs Villarreal
1-9
14 May
1-1
@ Valencia
1-5
11 May
1-1
vs Girona
9-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Alaves · Thursday 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
47%
This team
Draw
30%
Loss
23%
Alaves
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Rayo Vallecano compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.42
Below average
Goals against
1.42
Tighter than most
Record
5W 2D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.42
Conceded1.42

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Result
Rayo Vallecano matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Rayo Vallecano

55%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 11, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)63%5/8
Result33%1/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 10)

Sat 15 Aug@ Sevilla
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 May@ Alavés
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Villarreal
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 May@ Valencia
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 Mayvs Girona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 30 Aprvs Strasbourg
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Apr@ AEK Athens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Aprvs AEK Athens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Aprvs Elche
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Barcelona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMarash KumbullaCBfrom RomaLoan
INGiorgi TsitaishviliLWfrom Dynamo KyivFree transfer
INNobel MendyCBfrom Real BetisUndisclosed
OUTNobel MendyCBto Hull City€25m
OUTPep ChavarríaLBto Chelsea€19m
OUTPacha EspinoLBto Racing ClubFree transfer
OUTÓscar TrejoAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTGil Juanpeto CD MostolesFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Rayo Vallecano and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly