FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Alverca 1–1 EstorilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alverca at 44%, draw at 28%, Estoril at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Alverca to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
44%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Estoril win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.43
Total 3.24
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.46x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- 1X✓