Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Alverca
Team profile

Alverca Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.9
a game
13.5 faced
On target
3.6
a game
4.5 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Next match
9%
Alverca win chance
at Sporting · Sat 22 Aug 19:30

Alverca prediction: for Alverca's next match — Sporting vs Alverca on Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Sporting are favoured (69%).

Alverca are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.46 expected goals a game against a Liga Portugal average of 1.19. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.67 goals a game against 1.29 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Sporting CP, where the model has them as underdogs at 9%.

Alverca in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.1Away 0.9
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 4.5Away 4.4
9.9
Shots · per game
faced 13.5
Home 10.8Away 9.1
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.5
Home 3.6Away 3.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-2
vs Estrela
2-0
09 Aug
0-2
@ Porto
9-7
16 May
0-1
@ Famalicao
5-6
10 May
1-1
vs Estoril
4-4
02 May
0-1
@ Porto
4-5
24 Apr
2-1
vs Arouca
6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Sporting · Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
9%
Alverca
Draw
22%
Loss
69%
Sporting
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Alverca compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.29
Above average
Goals against
1.46
Leakier than most
Record
0W 2D 4L
6 settled
Real goals
0.7 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.29
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.46 xG per match · +0.27 vs league average of 1.19.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Alverca fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Alverca

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 15 Augvs Estrela
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Aug@ FC Porto
High confidence: Home Win
Sat 16 May@ FC Famalicao
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Estoril
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Nacional
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Sporting CP
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INNoah RaveyreGKfrom PauUndisclosed
INSamy Jr. MerhegSTfrom BragaUndisclosed
INYaya BojangCBfrom OBUndisclosed
INToni TamaritRWBfrom Villarreal BUndisclosed
INMarco EssimiRWfrom DunkerqueFree transfer
INJhonatanGKfrom Athletic ClubUndisclosed
INFrancisco ChissumbaLMfrom BragaLoan
INTiago Octaviafrom Leça FCUndisclosed
OUTLincolnRWto Bursaspor€2m
OUTLéo ChúRWto Avai FCLoan
OUTLéo ChúRWto Athletic ClubLoan
OUTSandro LimaSTto AraratFree transfer
OUTFelipe Limato Benfica BLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Alverca and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly