Alverca
Alverca's xG profile reveals a side struggling to impose themselves: they're underperforming in the final third (1.29 xG per match) whilst leaking at a concerning rate (1.46 conceded), a combination that's reflected in their recent collapse of one win in five. With no fixture immediately on the horizon, the focus shifts to their underlying metrics; the Poisson model flags their defensive fragility as the primary concern heading into their next assignment. Bawler's 75% banker hit rate on Alverca matches suggests value still exists in their markets despite current form.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Alverca were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Portugal: Primeira Liga average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Alverca are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Alverca actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Alverca's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Alverca fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Alverca matches.