Bawler / Portugal: Primeira Liga / Estoril
Team profile

Estoril Prediction

Per-game numbers from 35 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.7
a game
11.9 faced
On target
4.0
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 35 matches
Next match
48%
Estoril win chance
vs Rio Ave · Sat 22 Aug 17:00

Estoril prediction: for Estoril's next match — Estoril vs Rio Ave on Saturday 22 Aug, 17:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Estoril win looks most likely (48%).

Estoril sit close to the Primeira Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.47 expected goals a game and conceding 1.42. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.47 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is Rio Ave, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 48%.

Estoril in numbers

35 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.7Away 1.5
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 4.7Away 4.1
11.7
Shots · per game
faced 11.9
Home 12.2Away 11.3
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 4.4Away 3.6
Last 6 games
07 Aug
1-1
vs Famalicao
7-6
16 May
1-3
vs Benfica
2-9
10 May
1-1
@ Alverca
4-4
03 May
1-1
@ Braga
4-5
26 Apr
0-1
vs Famalicao
9-4
20 Apr
0-1
@ Moreirense
1-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Rio Ave · Saturday 22 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Win
48%
Estoril
Draw
30%
Loss
22%
Rio Ave
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Estoril compare with the Portugal: Primeira Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.47
Above average
Goals against
1.42
Tighter than most
Record
0W 2D 4L
6 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.47
Conceded1.42

The grey line on each bar is the Portugal: Primeira Liga average (1.35 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Estoril fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Estoril

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Fri 07 Augvs FC Famalicao
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 16 Mayvs Benfica
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Alverca
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Aprvs Famalicao
High confidence: Estoril or Draw (Double Chance)
Mon 06 Apr@ Arouca
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Rio Ave
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INStélios AndreouCBfrom Widzew ŁódźLoan
INFernando MedranoLBfrom CD MirandesFree transfer
OUTKévin BomaCBto Salzburg€7m
OUTFelix BacherCBto Lyon€4.3m
OUTAlejandro MarquésSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTPedro AmaralCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTNodar LominadzeCMto Torpedo KutaisiUndisclosed
OUTTiago ParenteLMto Swansea CityLoan
OUTFranCMto SintrenseFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Estoril and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly