> MATCH.PREDICT()·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group·Sunday 03 May, 16:30 UTC
Anderlecht vs Club Brugge KV
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
32.4% home29.0% draw38.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AnderlechtstepClub Brugge KV
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.52
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.47
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
6
9
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 18.9% · @ 5.28x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Anderlecht 1–3 Club Brugge KV
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+