FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Anderlecht 1–3 Club Brugge KVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 32%, draw at 29%, Club Brugge KV at 39%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge KV.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
32%
Draw
29%
KV win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.47
Total 2.79
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 5.28x
- X2✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓