> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Argentina vs Algeria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Argentina's 1.46 xG and Algeria's 1.04 create a combined total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal match.
Win probability
43.4% home32.4% draw24.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArgentinastepAlgeria
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
4
2
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 3–0 Algeria
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+