> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
AS Monaco vs Lille
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
40.0% home26.0% draw34.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AS MonacostepLille
1.79Base xG · rolling 26-match1.84
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.93Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.77
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
4
4
2
1
1
5
8
7
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
5
3
1
4
1
3
2
1
1
5
1
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AS Monaco 0–1 Lille
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+