Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Lille
Team profile

Lille Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.4
a game
9.2 faced
On target
4.6
a game
3.3 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
50%
Lille win chance
at Angers · Sun 23 Aug 13:00

Lille prediction: for Lille's next match — Angers vs Lille on Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Lille win looks most likely (50%).

Lille sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.62 expected goals a game and conceding 1.43. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.67 goals a game against 1.62 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Angers, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 50%.

Lille in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.5Away 1.4
5.8
Corners · per game
give up 3.8
Home 6.7Away 5.0
13.4
Shots · per game
faced 9.2
Home 14.4Away 12.4
4.6
On target · per game
faced 3.3
Home 4.9Away 4.3
Last 6 games
17 May
0-2
vs Auxerre
4-2
10 May
1-0
@ Monaco
2-5
03 May
1-1
vs Le Havre
14-5
26 Apr
1-0
@ Paris
3-7
18 Apr
0-0
vs Nice
5-3
12 Apr
4-0
@ Toulouse
2-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Angers · Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Win
50%
Lille
Draw
27%
Loss
22%
Angers
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Lille compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Above average
Goals against
1.43
Tighter than most
Record
3W 1D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
0.7 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.62
Conceded1.43

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

How Bawler has done on Lille

33%
of high-confidence calls correct — 2 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)50%2/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 17 Mayvs AJ Auxerre
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ AS Monaco
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Paris FC
High confidence: Paris FC or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Aprvs Nice
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Marseille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Mar@ Aston Villa
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INBasar ÖnalLWBfrom NEC Nijmegen€13m
INLoun SrdanovicRBfrom Servette€3m
INTanguy NianzouCBfrom SevillaFree transfer
OUTUgo RaghouberDMto Burnley€5m
OUTAndré GomesCMto Columbus CrewFree transfer
OUTThomas MeunierRBto SunderlandFree transfer
OUTVincent BurletLWto CracoviaUndisclosed
OUTAïssa MandiCBto LevanteFree transfer
OUTRafael FernandesCBto MaritimoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lille and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly