FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
AS Monaco 0–1 LilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AS Monaco at 40%, draw at 26%, Lille at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was AS Monaco to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Monaco win
40%
Draw
26%
Lille win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.93 – 1.77
Total 3.70
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.47x
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- X2✓