> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 10:00 UTC
AS Roma vs Lazio
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Roma's Champions League desperation and 0.42 xG advantage justifies 1X at 71% despite modest home win odds, making the draw buffer essential for qualification pressure.
Win probability
43.3% home32.9% draw23.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AS RomastepLazio
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.05
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.43Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.01
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
4
1
1
12
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AS Roma 2–0 Lazio
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+