> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Friday 15 May, 19:00 UTC
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Liverpool's marginal xG edge (1.40 vs 1.33) combined with superior defensive structure makes Under 2.5 Goals the model's optimal play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
32.8% home31.7% draw35.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Aston VillastepLiverpool
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.40
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
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3
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3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Aston Villa 4–2 Liverpool
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+