Bawler / England: Premier League / Liverpool
Team profile

Liverpool Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.1
a game
11.1 faced
On target
5.2
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.7 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
42%
Liverpool win chance
at Newcastle · Sun 23 Aug 15:30

Liverpool prediction: for Liverpool's next match — Newcastle vs Liverpool on Sunday 23 Aug, 15:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Liverpool win looks most likely (42%).

Liverpool sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.50 expected goals a game and conceding 1.55. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.50 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Newcastle United, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 42%.

Liverpool in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.9Away 1.5
6.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 6.5Away 5.7
16.1
Shots · per game
faced 11.1
Home 18.5Away 13.5
5.2
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 6.0Away 4.4
Last 6 games
02 Aug
2-4
vs Leeds
3-7
30 Jul
1-0
vs Wrexham
3-4
24 May
1-1
vs Brentford
14-2
15 May
2-4
@ Aston Villa
9-4
09 May
1-1
vs Chelsea
5-2
03 May
2-3
@ Manchester United
2-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Newcastle · Sunday 23 Aug, 15:30 UTC

Win
42%
Liverpool
Draw
26%
Loss
32%
Newcastle
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Liverpool compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.50
Above average
Goals against
1.55
Leakier than most
Record
0W 2D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 2.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.50
Conceded1.55

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Liverpool fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Liverpool

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 Mayvs Brentford
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 15 May@ Aston Villa
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 Mayvs Chelsea
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 08 Apr@ PSG
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Brighton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INVíctor MuñozLWfrom Osasuna€40m
INRonald AraujoCBfrom BarcelonaLoan
OUTMohamed SalahRWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTIbrahima KonatéCBto Real MadridFree transfer
OUTIbrahima KonatéCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTAndrew RobertsonLBto Tottenham HotspurFree transfer
OUTÁrmin PécsiGKto HartbergLoan
OUTLuca StephensonRMto Bolton Wanderers€820k
OUTTrent Koné-DohertyLWto Molde€750k
OUTCalum ScanlonLBto Cardiff CityLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

IsakIsakFWD · £9.0m · 14.6% owned4.0 pts
WirtzWirtzMID · £7.5m · 14.9% owned3.9 pts
VirgilVirgilDEF · £6.5m · 17.3% owned3.8 pts
SzoboszlaiSzoboszlaiMID · £7.0m · 41.6% owned3.0 pts
A.BeckerA.BeckerGKP · £5.5m · 3.9% owned2.9 pts
Next 5:NEW (A)NFO (H)IPS (A)FUL (H)BOU (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Liverpool and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly