Bawler / England: Premier League / Aston Villa
Team profile

Aston Villa Prediction

Per-game numbers from 54 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.7
a game
12.2 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 54 matches
Next match
28%
Aston Villa win chance
at Brighton · Sun 23 Aug 13:00

Aston Villa prediction: for Aston Villa's next match — Brighton vs Aston Villa on Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Brighton are favoured (44%).

Aston Villa sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.36 expected goals a game and conceding 1.37. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.30 a game against 1.36 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is a trip to Brighton & Hove Albion, where the model has them as underdogs at 28%.

Aston Villa in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.9Away 1.4
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 5.5Away 4.9
12.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.2
Home 13.8Away 11.6
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 5.4Away 4.1
Last 6 games
12 Aug
1-2
@ PSG
2-0
24 May
2-1
@ Manchester City
4-9
20 May
3-0
@ Freiburg
8-1
15 May
4-2
vs Liverpool
4-9
10 May
2-2
@ Burnley
8-2
07 May
4-0
vs Nott'm Forest
6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Brighton · Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Win
28%
Aston Villa
Draw
27%
Loss
44%
Brighton
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Aston Villa compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.36
Below average
Goals against
1.37
Tighter than most
Record
7W 1D 2L
10 settled
Real goals
2.3 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.36
Conceded1.37

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Aston Villa fixtures (6/7).
Tough market: Result
Aston Villa matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Aston Villa

70%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 10, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result33%1/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 24 May@ Manchester City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 20 May@ SC Freiburg
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 15 Mayvs Liverpool
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Burnley
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Tottenham
High confidence: 1X
Thu 30 Apr@ Nottingham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Aprvs Bologna
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Apr@ Bologna
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs West Ham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Marvs Lille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INJohan ManzambiDMfrom Freiburg€60m
INJoão GomesCMfrom Wolverhampton Wanderers€40m
INAlejandro GarnachoLWfrom ChelseaLoan
OUTMorgan RogersAMto Chelsea€137m
OUTYouri TielemansDMto Manchester United€41m
OUTEvann GuessandRWto Crystal PalaceLoan
OUTDonyell MalenSTto Roma€20m
OUTEnzo BarrenecheaDMto Benfica€12m
OUTLucas DigneLBto Paris Saint-Germain€7m
OUTAndrés GarcíaRBto GetafeLoan
OUTSamuel Iling-JuniorRWto Bolton WanderersLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

WatkinsWatkinsFWD · £8.0m · 12.5% owned3.9 pts
MaatsenMaatsenDEF · £4.5m · 0.8% owned3.0 pts
PauPauDEF · £4.5m · 0.3% owned2.8 pts
KonsaKonsaDEF · £4.5m · 15.5% owned2.5 pts
MartinezMartinezGKP · £5.0m · 4.9% owned2.4 pts
Next 5:BHA (A)ARS (H)HUL (A)NFO (H)TOT (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Aston Villa and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly