> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Celta's Champions League desperation plus Athletic's superior xG (1.41–1.14) makes home 1X the anchor play at 76% probability.
Win probability
39.8% home32.6% draw27.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Athletic ClubstepCelta Vigo
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
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4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+