FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Athletic Club 1–1 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Athletic Club at 40%, draw at 33%, Celta Vigo at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Athletic Club to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Club win
40%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
Vigo win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.14
Total 2.55
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 2.61x
- 1X✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners–
> What we said pre-match
"Celta's Champions League desperation plus Athletic's superior xG (1.41–1.14) makes home 1X the anchor play at 76% probability."