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Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo crest

Celta Vigo

Spain: La Liga

Celta Vigo operates in precise balance—their xG output of 1.41 per match mirrors their defensive concession rate exactly, suggesting a side that neither creates nor surrenders clear-cut opportunities at scale. Recent form has deteriorated sharply, with three losses in their last five, though the underlying metrics remain stable rather than catastrophic. With no fixture scheduled in the immediate window, the focus remains on Bawler's model recalibration ahead of resumption. Our bankers on Celta have struck at 78% accuracy across nine settled matches, indicating robust edge identification on their tightly-contested contests.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.41-0.03 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.380.07 vs league
◇ = Spain: La Liga average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Celta Vigo were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Spain: La Liga average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Celta Vigo are above average there.

> xG performance · last 10 matches
01234@ Lyon: actual 2, xG 1.25vs Alaves: actual 3, xG 1.44@ Valencia: actual 3, xG 1.27@ Freiburg: actual 0, xG 1.38vs Freiburg: actual 1, xG 1.72@ Villarreal: actual 1, xG 1.10@ Atlético Madrid: actual 1, xG 1.45vs Levante: actual 2, xG 1.92@ Athletic Bilbao: actual 1, xG 1.14vs Sevilla: actual 1, xG 1.44@LyonAlaves@Valenc@FreibuFreibu@Villar@AtlétiLevant@AthletSevill
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate +0.9 goals vs xG (+0.09/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals Celta Vigo actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Bawler's edge: Goals (Over/Under)
Banker picks in this market land 83% of the time on Celta Vigo fixtures (5/6).
> Form · last 5
Overall: 4W / 1D / 5L · Avg goals 1.5 for, 1.8 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Celta Vigo's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
10
10 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.41
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.38
per match
Banker Hit Rate
80%
8/10 picks
> Bawler's Banker picks on Celta Vigo matches
80%
hit rate over 10 picks

When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Celta Vigo fixture, the model lands 8 out of 10 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

> Bawler's record on Celta Vigo by market
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result67%2/3

How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Celta Vigo fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Celta Vigo matches.

> Recent matches (last 10)

> More from Bawler