> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 10 May, 14:15 UTC
Athletic Club vs Valencia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
42.9% home28.9% draw28.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Athletic ClubstepValencia
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.71Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.36
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
4
2
1
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+