FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Athletic Club 0–1 ValenciaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Athletic Club at 43%, draw at 29%, Valencia at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Athletic Club to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Club win
43%
Draw
29%
Valencia win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.36
Total 3.08
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 2.54x
- Over 9.5 Corners–
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- 1X✗