Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Valencia
Team profile

Valencia Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.9
a game
11.7 faced
On target
3.2
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
43%
Valencia win chance
vs Celta Vigo · Sat 22 Aug 17:30

Valencia prediction: for Valencia's next match — Valencia vs Celta Vigo on Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Valencia win looks most likely (43%).

Valencia sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.30 expected goals a game and conceding 1.47. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.17 a game against 1.30 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is Celta Vigo, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 43%.

Valencia in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.4Away 1.0
5.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 6.0Away 4.1
11.9
Shots · per game
faced 11.7
Home 13.8Away 10.0
3.2
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 3.4Away 3.1
Last 6 games
23 May
3-1
vs Barcelona
7-8
17 May
4-3
@ Real Sociedad
2-3
14 May
1-1
vs Rayo Vallecano
5-1
10 May
1-0
@ Athletic Bilbao
-
02 May
0-2
vs Atlético Madrid
1-7
25 Apr
2-1
vs Girona
4-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Celta Vigo · Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30 UTC

Win
43%
Valencia
Draw
29%
Loss
28%
Celta Vigo
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Valencia compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.30
Below average
Goals against
1.47
Leakier than most
Record
4W 1D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
2.2 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.30
Conceded1.47

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Valencia fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Valencia

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 6
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs Real Betis

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 23 Mayvs Barcelona
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 May@ Real Sociedad
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Athletic Club
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs Celta Vigo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Sevilla
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INRyunosuke SatoSTfrom FC Tokyo€4m
INJustin De HaasCBfrom FamalicaoFree transfer
INRenzo SaraviaRBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INAliou DiengDMfrom Al Ahly SC€500k
INVíctor FernándezDMfrom LevanteUndisclosed
OUTBaptiste SantamaríaCMto PAOK ThessalonikiFree transfer
OUTCenk ÖzkacarCBto Trabzonspor€1.8m
OUTThierry CorreiaRBto VeneziaFree transfer
OUTEray CömertCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTRenzo SaraviaRBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTMario Domínguezto ExcelsiorLoan
OUTLucas Núñezto EibarLoan
OUTHamza BellariSTto CastellonFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Valencia and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly