> MATCH.PREDICT()·EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs·Wednesday 29 Apr, 19:00 UTC
Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
19.1% home28.0% draw52.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Atl. MadridstepArsenal
0.82Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.89Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
13
11
6
2
1
1
7
12
10
5
2
1
2
3
5
4
2
1
3
1
2
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 22.9% · @ 4.36x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atl. Madrid 0–0 Arsenal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+