Bawler / England: Premier League / Arsenal
Team profile

Arsenal Prediction

Per-game numbers from 55 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.3
a game
8.7 faced
On target
5.2
a game
2.5 faced
Goals
1.9 – 0.7
scored – conceded
a game, 55 matches
Next match
76%
Arsenal win chance
vs Coventry · Fri 21 Aug 19:00

Arsenal prediction: for Arsenal's next match — Arsenal vs Coventry on Friday 21 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Arsenal win looks most likely (76%).

Arsenal sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.51 expected goals a game and conceding 1.23. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.86 goals a game against 1.51 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is Coventry City, where the model makes them clear favourites at 76%.

Arsenal in numbers

55 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 0.7
Home 2.2Away 1.6
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
Home 5.9Away 5.1
14.3
Shots · per game
faced 8.7
Home 16.1Away 12.5
5.2
On target · per game
faced 2.5
Home 5.4Away 5.0
Last 6 games
16 Aug
3-0
vs Manchester City
2-4
09 Aug
2-3
vs Dortmund
-
30 May
1-1
@ PSG
-
24 May
2-1
@ Crystal Palace
4-3
18 May
1-0
vs Burnley
3-3
10 May
1-0
@ West Ham
3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Coventry · Friday 21 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
76%
Arsenal
Draw
16%
Loss
8%
Coventry
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Arsenal compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.51
Above average
Goals against
1.23
Tighter than most
Record
4W 3D 0L
7 settled
Real goals
0.9 – 0.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.51
Conceded1.23

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.23 xG per match · -0.23 vs league average of 1.47.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Arsenal fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Arsenal

86%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%5/5
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 30 May@ Paris Saint-Germain
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Crystal Palace
High confidence: X2
Mon 18 Mayvs Burnley
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ West Ham United
High confidence: X2
Wed 29 Apr@ Atl. Madrid
High confidence: X2
Wed 15 Aprvs Sporting CP
High confidence: 1X
Tue 07 Apr@ Sporting CP
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INBruno GuimarãesCMfrom Newcastle United€88m
INChristos TzolisLWfrom Club Brugge€40m
INPiero HincapiéLBfrom Bayer Leverkusen€40m
INIllan MeslierGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTJakub KiwiorCBto FC PortoUndisclosed
OUTLeandro TrossardLWto Beşiktaş€20m
OUTChristian NørgaardDMto Everton€8m
OUTKarl HeinGKto Werder Bremen€3m
OUTIsmeal KabiaRWBto St. MirrenLoan
OUTAlexei RojasGKto PenafielFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

GabrielGabrielDEF · £8.0m · 27.9% owned5.1 pts
RayaRayaGKP · £6.0m · 32.4% owned3.8 pts
RiceRiceMID · £7.5m · 20.8% owned3.6 pts
SakaSakaMID · £9.5m · 10.2% owned3.4 pts
ØdegaardØdegaardMID · £6.5m · 3.8% owned3.1 pts
Next 5:COV (H)AVL (A)CHE (H)SUN (A)BHA (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Arsenal and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly