FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs · Wednesday, 29 April 2026
Atl. Madrid 0–0 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 29 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atl. Madrid at 19%, draw at 28%, Arsenal at 53%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Arsenal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Madrid win
19%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Arsenal win
53%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.89 – 1.66
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 4.36x
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT–
- Over 2.5 Goals✗