> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:30 UTC
Atlanta United FC vs CF Montréal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
40.3% home27.5% draw32.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Atlanta United FCstepCF Montréal
1.51Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.63Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.43
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
5
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF Montréal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+