FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 40%, draw at 27%, CF Montréal at 32%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Atlanta United FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Montréal win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.43
Total 3.06
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 41%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost