> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 23:30 UTC
Atlanta United FC vs LA Galaxy
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
31.2% home39.0% draw29.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Atlanta United FCstepLA Galaxy
0.88Base xG · rolling 26-match0.96
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.95Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.93
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15
14
7
2
1
15
13
6
2
2
7
6
3
1
3
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atlanta United FC 1–2 LA Galaxy
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+