FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Atlanta United FC 1–2 LA GalaxyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 31%, draw at 39%, LA Galaxy at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
31%
Draw
39%
Galaxy win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.95 – 0.93
Total 1.88
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
Draw
Pre-match: 41%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won