> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Australia vs Türkiye
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals at 71% probability sits comfortably on Australia's 0.77 expected-goals edge and a combined xG total of 2.66, suggesting both sides will find the net.
Win probability
52.1% home29.4% draw18.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AustraliastepTürkiye
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match0.98
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.71Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
1
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Australia 2–0 Türkiye
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+