FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 14 June 2026

Australia 20 TürkiyeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 14 June 2026

Australia
20
Australia win
Türkiye
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Australia at 52%, draw at 29%, Türkiye at 18%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Australia.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Australia win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Türkiye win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.710.94
Total 2.66
Actual
20
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals at 71% probability sits comfortably on Australia's 0.77 expected-goals edge and a combined xG total of 2.66, suggesting both sides will find the net."

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