> MATCH.PREDICT()·FRANCE: Ligue 1·Sunday 03 May, 15:15 UTC
Auxerre vs Angers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.2% home31.3% draw22.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AuxerrestepAngers
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match0.93
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.89
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
9
4
1
1
14
13
6
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
4
2
1
4
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Auxerre 3–1 Angers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+