FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Auxerre 3–1 AngersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Auxerre at 46%, draw at 31%, Angers at 23%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Auxerre.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Auxerre win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Angers win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 0.89
Total 2.30
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost