Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Porto
Team profile

Porto Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.2
a game
10.3 faced
On target
5.2
a game
2.6 faced
Goals
1.8 – 0.6
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
66%
Porto win chance
vs Arouca · Sun 23 Aug 19:30

Porto prediction: for Porto's next match — Porto vs Arouca on Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Porto win looks most likely (66%).

Porto carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.60 expected goals per game against a Liga Portugal average of 1.23. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is Arouca, where the model makes them clear favourites at 66%.

Porto in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 0.6
Home 2.0Away 1.7
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
Home 5.4Away 5.6
14.2
Shots · per game
faced 10.3
Home 14.2Away 14.1
5.2
On target · per game
faced 2.6
Home 5.3Away 5.2
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-0
@ Rio Ave
6-6
09 Aug
2-0
vs Alverca
7-9
01 Aug
1-0
vs Torreense
4-2
16 May
1-0
vs Santa Clara
8-5
10 May
1-3
@ AFS
-
02 May
1-0
vs Alverca
5-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Arouca · Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
66%
Porto
Draw
24%
Loss
10%
Arouca
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Porto compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.60
Above average
Goals against
1.04
Tighter than most
Record
6W 1D 2L
9 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.60
Conceded1.04

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.60 xG per match · +0.37 above the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average of 1.23.
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Porto

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 9
Result67%4/6
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 9)

Sat 15 Aug@ Rio Ave
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Augvs Alverca
High confidence: Home Win
Sat 16 Mayvs Santa Clara
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ AVS
High confidence: X2
Sun 26 Apr@ Estrela
High confidence: Estrela or Draw (Double Chance)
Thu 16 Apr@ Nottingham
High confidence: X2
Thu 09 Aprvs Nottingham
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Mar@ Braga
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Marvs Stuttgart
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INJakub KiwiorCBfrom ArsenalUndisclosed
INIn-Beom HwangDMfrom Feyenoord€4.5m
INAndré SilvaSTfrom ElcheFree transfer
INJoão AfonsoGKfrom Santa Clara€1.5m
INCardoso VarelaRWfrom Dinamo ZagrebFree transfer
OUTDanny NamasoAMto Auxerre€5m
OUTTomás PérezCMto Atletico MGLoan
OUTÁngel AlarconRWto FC Utrecht€2m
OUTGabriel BrásCBto NEC NijmegenLoan
OUTLuuk de JongSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTThiago SilvaCBto FluminenseFree transfer
OUTYann KaramohRWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTTiago SilvaCMto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Porto and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly