> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
AZ's 1.85 xG advantage and 51% win probability justify backing 1X at 83% odds despite modest expected scoring volume.
Win probability
50.9% home28.0% draw21.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AZ AlkmaarstepNAC Breda
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.85Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
1
9
11
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9
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 41.6% · @ 2.41x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+